GBI Research has released the pharma report, "ADHD Therapeutics to 2020 - Broadened Diagnostic Criteria and Growing Adult Prevalence to Drive Market Growth despite Patent Expirations" Changes in diagnostic criteria have reduced the symptom threshold for diagnosis and finally bring the acceptance of adult ADHD to the clinical setting, enabling those previously unable to obtain a diagnosis to be diagnosed for ADHD treatment. In the case of adult ADHD, 4.1% of US adults are believed to suffer from ADHD, 41.3% of these cases are classified as severe and would be eligible for therapeutic intervention.
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The current ADHD therapeutics market is flooded with generics and dominated by the use of Extended-Release (ER) stimulant drugs which have superseded short-acting, Immediate-Release (IR) formulations. With dose titration per patient, ER stimulants are usually effective in 70-90% of patients. However, all stimulants apart from Vyvanse come with potential for abuse. Non-stimulants are used for those who are poor-responders, have poor cardiac history or prefer non-stimulant medication however their efficacy is lacking in comparison. Currently, 10% of adult patients are using a combination of ER and IR treatment for an additional duration, representing an unmet need within this growing ADHD segment.
The current developmental pipeline addresses these gaps in the market, with three potential non-stimulants entering the market during the forecast period and SHP465, which aims to address the unmet need in the adult ADHD segment with its tailored duration of action. In spite of anticipated drug approvals, patents expirations and increased generic competition will cause ACoT to remain fairly static and even decrease across some nations.
As a result, the global market is not expected to be driven by drug approvals, but primarily by a growing prevalence, increase in rates of diagnosis, and therefore eligible treatment population. Global market revenues are forecast to rise at a CAGR of 4.8% to $9.4 billion by 2020.
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